Al Eats the World, Defense Tech Capabilities and Founder Led-Sales

Trivial in hindsight.

Good morning,

If you are interested in hearing me talk about current progress and using AI for leadership and managers (in Polish), please attend this event, which will include a long Q&A. See you there!

In today's edition, among other things:

• Al Eats the World

• European Defense Tech Capabilities

• Founder Led-Sales

• When Should a Decision Be Fast or Slow?

• A Practical Guide to Executive Presence

• Outcome-Based Pricing

• What is an AI Engineer?

Onwards!

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European Defence Tech Capabilities

Friends at Lakestar published a report on European Defence Capabilities with some crazy insights. Let’s dive in:

• Current European NATO defense spending is 30% below 1992 levels

• Europe faces its biggest security threat in decades, with Russia estimated to rebuild military capabilities within 2-8 years

• Germany and other European nations are significantly underinvesting in defense compared to threat levels (except Poland and Finland)

• There's a significant capability gap in military equipment, personnel, and industrial capacity

• Defense tech innovation in Europe lags the US by approximately 5 years

I knew that things in European defense capabilities were bad, but not this bad. While facing its most significant security challenges in decades, Europe’s defense capabilities have eroded across multiple dimensions - from industrial capacity to technological sophistication. This is both a significant risk and an opportunity.

Contemporary analyses show that a €1,000 drone can neutralize a €10 million tank, while autonomous systems offer orders-of-magnitude cost advantages over traditional platforms. This cost asymmetry fundamentally reshapes the economics of defense capability development.

Now, the main argument in the media is to increase spending. However, spending increases are insufficient—the funding must jumpstart tech transformation first. The data suggests that allocating just 10% of increased defense budgets to innovation could create a €245 billion market opportunity for defense technology companies.

There are three ways to do that:

• Innovation Ecosystem Development

  • Creation of defense technology hubs connecting military, industry, and startups

  • Streamlined procurement processes for emerging technology adoption

  • Investment in dual-use technology development

• Industrial Base Transformation

  • Modernization of production capabilities

  • Reduction of platform fragmentation (currently 2-4x higher than the US)

  • Integration of digital technologies into traditional defense systems

• Strategic Investment Architecture

  • Development of defense technology venture funding mechanisms

  • Creation of public-private partnership frameworks

  • Establishment of technology transfer pathways

Or be forced into that process by war.

The data suggests that strategic defense technology investment could generate significant economic benefits: